The Intentional Element in the Violation of the Precautionary Principle in International Humanitarian Law

Abstract

The study addressed the problem associated with the insufficient determination of the intentional element in the violation of the precautionary principle in International Humanitarian Law, which hinders the attribution of legal responsibility in contemporary armed conflict contexts. The objective was to analyze this element and its impact on the configuration of international responsibility. The methodology was developed under a quantitative approach with a documentary base, through the review of 16 scientific sources and institutional reports, applying categorical analysis, multiple correspondence analysis, and a logistic regression model. The results evidence that criminal responsibility (75.0%) and the protection of civilians (68.8%) are the predominant variables, while explicit precaution reaches 31.2%. The logistic model showed that factors such as jurisdiction (OR = 1.565) and technology (OR = 1.514) increase the probability of attributing responsibility, in contrast to the classification of the conflict (OR = 0.241). Furthermore, it was identified that the probability of imputation increases as concurrent factors accumulate. These results demonstrate that intentionality can be inferred from knowledge of risk and the omission of preventive measures, reinforcing the need to integrate normative, evidentiary, and technological dimensions to guarantee effective protection of the civilian population.